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https://github.com/PR0M3TH3AN/python_charts.git
synced 2026-10-27 08:50:39 +00:00
Enhance Bitcoin vs M2 chart script with data cropping and shifting
Update `bitcoin_m2_chart.py` to plot Bitcoin price against global M2 money supply, rebased to 100 and shifted forward by 90 days. Limit data to start from July 1, 2024, and include error handling for missing GLOBAL_M2 data. Add dual y-axes and improve documentation for clarity. Include new output images for the updated chart.
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@@ -1,8 +1,10 @@
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""bitcoin_m2_chart.py
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----------------------
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Plot Bitcoin price (log scale) versus global M2 money supply (as a 100-point index)
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stored in `data/fred.db`. Bitcoin is orange; M2 is green; white background; monthly x-ticks.
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Plot Bitcoin price (log scale) versus global M2 money supply (rebased to 100),
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with M2 shifted forward by 90 days so that both series share the same x-axis.
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Show only data from July 1, 2024 onward. White background, two y-axes on the right,
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monthly x-ticks, and friendly error message if GLOBAL_M2 is missing.
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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@@ -45,7 +47,7 @@ def fetch_series(
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def validate_series(
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btc: pd.DataFrame, m2: pd.DataFrame, btc_name: str, m2_name: str
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) -> None:
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"""Run basic sanity checks on the two series."""
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"""Basic sanity checks on the two series."""
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validate_dataframe(btc, btc_name)
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validate_dataframe(m2, m2_name)
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validate_overlap(btc, m2)
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@@ -62,66 +64,175 @@ def plot_bitcoin_m2(
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dpi: int | None = None,
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) -> plt.Figure:
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"""
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Plot Bitcoin price (log scale) and a rebased (100-point) M2 index on dual axes:
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• Bitcoin is orange, on a log-scaled left y-axis
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• Global M2 is green, on a linear right y-axis
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• White background, monthly x-ticks, with an “empty buffer” past the last date.
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Plot Bitcoin (log scale) and Global M2 (rebased to 100) on a shared x-axis,
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with M2 shifted forward by `offset_days` (90 days). Show only data from
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July 1, 2024 onward. White background, two y-axes on the right, monthly x-ticks.
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"""
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# 1) Determine overlapping date range
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common_start = max(btc.index.min(), m2.index.min())
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common_end = min(btc.index.max(), m2.index.max())
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btc_common = btc.loc[common_start:common_end].dropna(subset=["value"])
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m2_common = m2.loc[common_start:common_end].dropna(subset=["value"])
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# 1) DROP ANY ROWS WITH NULL "value" BEFORE SHIFTING/REBASE:
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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btc_clean = btc.dropna(subset=["value"])
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m2_clean = m2.dropna(subset=["value"])
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# 2) Shift M2 by `offset_days`
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m2_shifted = m2_common.shift(offset_days)
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# 2) SHIFT M2's INDEX FORWARD by offset_days (90)
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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m2_shifted = m2_clean.copy()
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m2_shifted.index = m2_shifted.index + pd.Timedelta(days=offset_days)
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# 3) Rebase M2 to a 100-point index
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# (so that at the first available date, M2_index = 100)
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m2_indexed = (m2_shifted["value"] / m2_shifted["value"].iloc[0]) * 100
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# 3) CROP BOTH SERIES TO START ON JULY 1, 2024 (user request)
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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crop_start = pd.to_datetime("2024-07-01")
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btc_cropped = btc_clean.loc[btc_clean.index >= crop_start]
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m2_cropped = m2_shifted.loc[m2_shifted.index >= crop_start]
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# 4) Create figure + axes
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# 4) FIND OVERLAP WINDOW: plot only dates where BOTH series exist
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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overlap_start = max(btc_cropped.index.min(), m2_cropped.index.min())
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overlap_end = min(btc_cropped.index.max(), m2_cropped.index.max())
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if overlap_start >= overlap_end:
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raise ValueError(
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f"No overlapping range from {crop_start.date()} after shifting M2 by {offset_days} days."
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)
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btc_overlap = btc_cropped.loc[overlap_start:overlap_end]
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m2_overlap = m2_cropped.loc[overlap_start:overlap_end]
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# 5) REBASE M2_OVERLAP to base‐100 index
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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first_m2_date = m2_overlap["value"].dropna().index.min()
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if first_m2_date is None:
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m2_indexed = pd.Series([], dtype=float)
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else:
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first_m2_value = float(m2_overlap.loc[first_m2_date, "value"])
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m2_indexed = (m2_overlap["value"] / first_m2_value) * 100
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m2_indexed = m2_indexed.dropna()
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# 6) SET UP FIGURE WITH WHITE BACKGROUND
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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fig, ax1 = plt.subplots(figsize=(width, height), dpi=dpi)
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# (White background is default, so no style override is needed.)
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fig.patch.set_facecolor("white")
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ax1.set_facecolor("white")
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# 5) Plot Bitcoin (orange) ON A LOGARITHMIC Y-AXIS
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# ─── Plot Bitcoin on "ax1" (log scale, orange) ─────────────────────────────
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ax1.plot(
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btc_common.index,
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btc_common["value"],
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btc_overlap.index,
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btc_overlap["value"],
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label="Bitcoin (USD, log-scale)",
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color="#f7931a", # Bitcoin-orange
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color="#f7931a",
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linewidth=2.0,
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)
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ax1.set_yscale("log") # ← LOG SCALE
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ax1.set_yscale("log")
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ax1.set_ylabel("Bitcoin Price (USD, log)", color="#333333")
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ax1.tick_params(axis="y", colors="#333333")
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ax1.grid(axis="y", linestyle="--", alpha=0.3)
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# Move BTC axis to the right side:
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ax1.yaxis.set_label_position("right")
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ax1.yaxis.tick_right()
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# 6) Plot M2 index (green) on a LINEAR right‐hand axis
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ax2 = ax1.twinx()
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ax2.plot(
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m2_indexed.index,
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m2_indexed,
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label="Global M2 Index (base 100)",
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color="#00aa00", # dark-green for contrast
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linewidth=2.0,
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# ─── Plot a horizontal dotted line at the last BTC close ────────────────────
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last_btc_date = btc_overlap.index.max()
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last_btc_value = float(btc_overlap.loc[last_btc_date, "value"])
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ax1.axhline(
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last_btc_value,
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color="#f7931a",
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linestyle=":",
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linewidth=1.5,
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alpha=0.9,
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)
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ax2.set_ylabel("Global M2 Index (linear)", color="#333333")
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# 7) Plot M2 on twin axis "ax2" (linear scale, green) ───────────────────────
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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ax2 = ax1.twinx()
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if not m2_indexed.empty:
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ax2.plot(
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m2_indexed.index,
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m2_indexed.values,
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label="Global M2 Index (base 100)",
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color="#00aa00",
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linewidth=2.0,
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)
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ax2.set_ylabel("Global M2 Index (base 100)", color="#333333")
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ax2.tick_params(axis="y", colors="#333333")
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# (No grid on ax2 to keep it clean.)
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# Move M2 axis even further right (so BTC ticks are inner-right, M2 outer-right):
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ax2.spines["right"].set_position(("axes", 1.08))
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# 7) Extend x‐axis to give “future blank space”
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x_end_extended = common_end + relativedelta(years=extend_years)
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ax1.set_xlim(common_start, x_end_extended)
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# 8) SET Y-TICKS EXACTLY AS IN THE SCREENSHOT
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# Bitcoin ticks (inner right):
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btc_ticks = [41100, 45500, 50500, 56500, 62500, 70500, 78000, 86000, 98000, 113000]
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ax1.set_yticks(btc_ticks)
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ax1.set_yticklabels([f"{int(tick):,}" for tick in btc_ticks], color="#333333")
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# 8) Monthly x-ticks (e.g., “Aug, Sep, Oct…”)
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# Global M2 ticks (outer right):
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m2_ticks = [99.10] + list(range(100, 114)) # [99.10, 100, 101, …, 113]
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ax2.set_yticks(m2_ticks)
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ax2.set_yticklabels(
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[f"{tick:.2f}" if isinstance(tick, float) else f"{tick}" for tick in m2_ticks],
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color="#333333",
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)
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# 9) DRAW HORIZONTAL GRID LINES (only on BTC axis)
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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ax1.grid(
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axis="y",
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linestyle="--",
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linewidth=0.7,
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color="#cccccc",
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alpha=0.4,
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)
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# 10) SET X-LIMITS: from overlap_start → overlap_end + extend_years
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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x_end_extended = overlap_end + relativedelta(years=extend_years)
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ax1.set_xlim(overlap_start, x_end_extended)
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# 11) MONTHLY X-TICKS:
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# Major = first of each month (“Jul, Aug, Sep …”),
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# Minor = mid-month (no label).
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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ax1.xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.MonthLocator(interval=1))
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ax1.xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter("%b"))
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ax1.xaxis.set_minor_locator(mdates.MonthLocator(bymonthday=15))
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plt.setp(ax1.get_xticklabels(), rotation=0, ha="center")
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for label in ax1.get_xticklabels():
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label.set_color("#333333")
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label.set_rotation(0)
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label.set_fontsize(10)
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# 9) Combine legends from both axes
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# 12) ANNOTATE “2025” UNDER THE JANUARY TICK
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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try:
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jan2025 = pd.to_datetime("2025-01-01")
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if jan2025 < overlap_start:
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jan2025 = pd.to_datetime(f"{overlap_start.year + 1}-01-01")
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xloc = mdates.date2num(jan2025)
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ax1.annotate(
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"2025",
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(xloc, 0),
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xycoords=("data", "axes fraction"),
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xytext=(0, -20),
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textcoords="offset points",
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ha="center",
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color="#333333",
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fontsize=11,
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)
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except Exception:
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pass
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# 13) LEGEND (combine both axes) at top-left
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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lines1, labels1 = ax1.get_legend_handles_labels()
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lines2, labels2 = ax2.get_legend_handles_labels()
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ax1.legend(
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@@ -129,10 +240,51 @@ def plot_bitcoin_m2(
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labels1 + labels2,
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loc="upper left",
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frameon=False,
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fontsize=10,
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fontsize=11,
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)
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fig.tight_layout()
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# 14) HEADER TEXT (symbol, price, M2 info) at top-left
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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header_y = 1.02
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# “Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar · 1D · COINBASE” in gray:
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ax1.text(
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0.0,
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header_y,
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"Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar · 1D · COINBASE",
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transform=ax1.transAxes,
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color="#333333",
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fontsize=12,
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weight="bold",
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va="bottom",
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)
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# BTC’s last close and daily change in orange:
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prev_btc = float(btc_overlap["value"].iloc[-2])
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change = last_btc_value - prev_btc
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pct_change = (change / prev_btc) * 100
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ax1.text(
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0.0,
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header_y - 0.035,
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f"{last_btc_value:,.2f} {change:+.2f} ({pct_change:+.2f}%)",
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transform=ax1.transAxes,
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color="#f7931a",
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fontsize=11,
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va="bottom",
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)
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# M2 info (“Days Offset = 90” and last M2 index) in green:
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if not m2_indexed.empty:
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last_m2_val = m2_indexed.iloc[-1]
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ax1.text(
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0.0,
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header_y - 0.07,
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f"Global M2 Money Supply // Days Offset = {offset_days} {last_m2_val:.2f}",
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transform=ax1.transAxes,
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color="#00aa00",
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fontsize=11,
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va="bottom",
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)
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fig.tight_layout(rect=[0, 0, 1, 0.95])
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return fig
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@@ -151,7 +303,7 @@ def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> plt.Figure:
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help="FRED series name for global M2",
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)
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p.add_argument(
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"--start", type=str, default="2010-01-01", help="start date YYYY-MM-DD"
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"--start", type=str, default="2024-01-01", help="start date YYYY-MM-DD"
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)
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p.add_argument(
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"--end",
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@@ -162,8 +314,8 @@ def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> plt.Figure:
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p.add_argument(
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"--offset",
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type=int,
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default=94, # M2 leads by 94 days
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help="shift M2 by this many days (positive = M2 leads)",
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default=90, # shift M2 forward by 90 days (to match TradingView)
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help="shift M2 by this many days (positive = M2 leads BTC)",
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)
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p.add_argument(
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"--extend-years", type=int, default=1, help="years beyond end date to show"
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@@ -195,13 +347,47 @@ def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> plt.Figure:
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print(f"Invalid --end date: {args.end}", file=sys.stderr)
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raise SystemExit(1)
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btc, m2 = fetch_series(start_dt, end_dt, args.btc_series, args.m2_series, args.db)
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# 15) FETCH SERIES
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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try:
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btc, m2 = fetch_series(start_dt, end_dt, args.btc_series, args.m2_series, args.db)
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except FileNotFoundError as fnf:
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print(fnf, file=sys.stderr)
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sys.exit(1)
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# Drop rows with null “value”
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btc = btc.dropna(subset=["value"])
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m2 = m2.dropna(subset=["value"])
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# If either series is empty, print a friendly message and exit:
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if btc.empty:
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print(
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f"No data found for {args.btc_series} between {args.start} and {args.end}.",
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file=sys.stderr,
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)
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sys.exit(1)
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validate_series(btc, m2, args.btc_series, args.m2_series)
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if m2.empty:
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print(
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f"No data found for {args.m2_series} between {args.start} and {args.end}.",
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file=sys.stderr,
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)
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print(
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"Try running:\n"
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" python -m scripts.refresh_data --series GLOBAL_M2 --start 2010-01-01",
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file=sys.stderr,
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)
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sys.exit(1)
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# 16) VALIDATE (non-empty, no nulls, overlapping)
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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try:
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validate_series(btc, m2, args.btc_series, args.m2_series)
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except ValueError as e:
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print(f"Validation error: {e}", file=sys.stderr)
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sys.exit(1)
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# 17) PLOT
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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fig = plot_bitcoin_m2(
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btc,
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m2,
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